Executive Summary
The transportation and logistics market closes the week with increasing pressure on operating costs, driven primarily by the sharp rise in diesel prices, while trucking capacity remains constrained and the international ocean freight market continues to face elevated rates and poor schedule reliability.
The U.S. national average diesel price reached $6.53 per gallon, up $0.24 in just one week. The increase was particularly significant in the Midwest, where prices rose $0.43 per gallon. This trend is expected to increase fuel surcharges and put additional pressure on both FTL and LTL transportation costs.
In the trucking market, capacity remains tight. The estimated number of active CDL drivers stands at approximately 3.46 million, while about 232,000 drivers have exited the market over the past 12 months. The estimated driver shortage for 2026 remains near 82,000, accompanied by turnover of approximately 90% among large fleets.
In ocean freight, Asia–U.S. spot rates remain near peak-season highs, while global schedule reliability has fallen to only 29%. At the same time, Suez Canal transits are showing a selective recovery, although geopolitical risks continue to limit a broader normalization of shipping routes.
At U.S. ports, volumes remain elevated and continue to grow gradually. Los Angeles reached approximately 220,600 TEUs in Week 38, while New York/New Jersey reached 196,200 TEUs and Savannah 122,900 TEUs. Despite higher volumes, dwell times remain relatively manageable.
U.S. Weather and Operational Impacts
The forecast for September 25–27 highlights three main areas of concern for logistics operations: the Northeast, the South-Central United States, and the Southwest.
On Friday, September 25, an early-season nor’easter is expected to affect coastal New England, bringing wind gusts above 45 mph, heavy rain, coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion. Drayage and linehaul operations in the Northeast could experience delays, particularly around New York/New Jersey, Boston, and the I-95 corridor.
At the same time, heavy rain and flash-flood risk remain across portions of the Rockies and Plains, while above-normal temperatures continue across Texas and other South-Central states.
On Saturday, the coastal system is expected to continue affecting southern New England, while rain persists across Iowa and Missouri. On Sunday, coastal risks remain in the Northeast, while moisture associated with Hurricane Polo in the Pacific could increase precipitation across the Southwest.
Operational impact: Additional transit buffers should be considered for Northeast operations, with close monitoring of port and drayage activity around New York/New Jersey. Potential disruptions across the Southwest and Mexico-related routes should also be monitored.
Diesel Fuel Prices
Diesel prices posted a broad-based increase across the United States during the week ending September 21.
| Region | Sep. 14 | Sep. 21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Average | $6.29 | $6.53 | +$0.24 |
| East Coast | $6.16 | $6.27 | +$0.11 |
| New England | $6.20 | $6.52 | +$0.32 |
| Central Atlantic | $6.31 | $6.55 | +$0.24 |
| Lower Atlantic | $6.10 | $6.14 | +$0.04 |
| Midwest | $6.25 | $6.68 | +$0.43 |
| Gulf Coast | $6.03 | $6.18 | +$0.15 |
| Rocky Mountain | $6.07 | $6.34 | +$0.27 |
| West Coast | $7.25 | $7.46 | +$0.21 |
| California | $8.04 | $8.25 | +$0.21 |
The Midwest recorded the largest weekly increase, up $0.43 per gallon. California remains the most expensive market at $8.25 per gallon.
For shippers, this translates into greater exposure to fuel surcharges. Even where linehaul rates remain stable or decline slightly, total transportation costs may continue rising because of fuel.
Container Volumes and Port/Ramp Dwell Times
Major U.S. gateways continue to show gradual growth in container volumes.
Between Weeks 35 and 38:
- Los Angeles: 214,000 → 220,600 TEUs
- New York/New Jersey: 190,000 → 196,200 TEUs
- Savannah: 118,500 → 122,900 TEUs
- Houston: 76,500 → 78,300 TEUs
- Charleston: 64,800 → 66,700 TEUs
- Norfolk: 64,900 → 66,700 TEUs
- Port Everglades: 30,100 → 31,000 TEUs
- Philadelphia: 15,600 → 16,100 TEUs
Despite the increase in volumes, dwell times remain manageable. Los Angeles is reporting approximately 4.5 days of container dwell and 1.4 hours of gate wait time. New York/New Jersey stands at approximately 4.0 days and 1.1 hours.
Among inland ramps, Chicago remains the main area of concern, with 55,000 TEUs, approximately 5.5 days of dwell, and 2.3 hours of gate wait time. Atlanta is handling 40,000 TEUs and Charlotte 26,000.
Overall, the data indicate high volumes without evidence of widespread deterioration in U.S. port operations.
FTL & LTL Freight Rates
FTL pricing showed mixed movement during the week of September 13–19.
Dry Van
The spot rate declined from $2.20 to $2.17 per mile, a decrease of approximately $0.03.
Despite the decline, the all-in rate increased to approximately $2.96 per mile because of higher fuel costs. According to the report, rates remain approximately 33% above the same period last year.
Flatbed
The rate moved from $2.61 to $2.60 per mile, essentially remaining stable.
The load-to-truck ratio declined to approximately 40.5 but continues to indicate a relatively tight market. The all-in rate reached approximately $3.55 per mile.
Reefer
Reefer was the only segment among the three to post a linehaul increase, rising from $2.71 to $2.73 per mile.
Seasonal produce demand is supporting rates. The all-in rate reached approximately $3.59 per mile.
LTL
In LTL, higher diesel prices are expected to continue putting upward pressure on transportation costs through fuel surcharges. In addition, relatively constrained truckload capacity could shift some freight into LTL networks, supporting pricing as the market enters the fourth quarter.
Conclusion
The week of September 25, 2026 presents a logistics market in which several risks are developing simultaneously: higher diesel prices, constrained trucking capacity, poor ocean schedule reliability, elevated port volumes, and regional weather disruptions.
At the same time, the data do not indicate widespread congestion across major U.S. ports, and FTL spot rates are not rising uniformly. Dry Van and Flatbed posted modest linehaul declines, while Reefer increased slightly.
For Global Cargo and its customers, the key takeaway is that a stable linehaul rate does not necessarily mean stable total logistics costs. Fuel, capacity availability, ocean delays, and accessorial expenses are becoming increasingly important components of the final transportation cost.
As the market enters the fourth quarter, the operational focus should remain on routing flexibility, advance capacity planning, fuel surcharge monitoring, and additional buffers for ocean shipments and weather-sensitive operations.
