Executive Summary
The North American logistics market enters the second half of September facing a combination of strong cost pressures, elevated import volumes, and continued transportation capacity constraints. The key development this week is the sharp increase in diesel prices: the U.S. national average reached $6.29 per gallon, up $0.32 from the previous week, while California climbed to $8.04 per gallon.
In ocean freight, container demand remains resilient. U.S. container imports increased 3.8%, reaching approximately 2.6 million TEUs, the third-highest monthly volume on record. At the same time, renewed disruption risks in the Red Sea could force carriers back around the Cape of Good Hope, potentially adding 10–14 days to transit times.
Major U.S. ports are also showing continued volume growth. Los Angeles reached approximately 220,600 weekly TEUs in Week 38, while New York/New Jersey reached 196,200 TEUs. At inland rail terminals, Chicago increased to 55,000 TEUs, reflecting additional pressure on intermodal capacity.
In trucking, driver availability remains structurally tight, with approximately 3.46 million active CDL drivers, an estimated shortage of 82,000 drivers, and roughly 232,000 drivers exiting the market over the past 12 months. Despite these constraints, Dry Van, Flatbed, and Reefer spot rates declined in the latest reading, suggesting some capacity is returning to the market.
The current environment requires particular attention to fuel costs, intermodal capacity, port congestion, driver availability, and weather-related disruptions.
U.S. Weather Forecast and Operational Impact
The forecast for September 18–20 indicates significant operational risks across several regions of the United States.
Friday, September 18
Heavy rainfall shifts into the north-central United States, while exceptionally hot conditions continue across the South-Central region.
A slow-moving upper-level system is expected to move from the Intermountain West toward the Great Plains, bringing heavy rainfall from the Southern Rockies into the Northern Plains.
At the same time, near-record or record-high temperatures remain possible across Texas, Oklahoma, and surrounding areas. Some Texas cities could exceed 104°F (40°C), with heat index values approaching 109°F (43°C).
Along the East Coast, corridors from New England to the Mid-Atlantic may experience scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday, September 19
The excessive rainfall risk expands into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest.
Parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and nearby areas could receive 2–4 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts and the potential for flash flooding.
Below-normal temperatures spread across the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and eastern Great Lakes.
Sunday, September 20
Rainfall shifts into the Lower Great Lakes, while the Southwest remains vulnerable to flooding.
The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic should trend cooler and drier following the passage of the frontal system.
Transportation Impact
The main operational risks are concentrated in:
- Southern Rockies and Great Plains;
- Upper Midwest and Great Lakes;
- Southwest corridors exposed to flash flooding;
- Texas and Oklahoma due to extreme heat.
Carriers should consider additional transit-time buffers, particularly for lanes crossing the Midwest and Great Lakes, while reinforcing driver hydration protocols and Reefer equipment inspections across the South-Central states.
On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices
Diesel prices represent one of the most significant developments in this week’s report.
The U.S. national average reached:
$6.29/gallon
This represents a weekly increase of approximately:
+$0.32/gallon
Key Markets
| Region | September 7 | September 14 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. National Average | $5.97 | $6.29 | +$0.32 |
| East Coast | $5.74 | $6.16 | +$0.42 |
| New England | $5.99 | $6.20 | +$0.21 |
| Central Atlantic | $6.05 | $6.31 | +$0.26 |
| Lower Atlantic | $5.61 | $6.10 | +$0.49 |
| Midwest | $5.95 | $6.25 | +$0.30 |
| Gulf Coast | $5.75 | $6.03 | +$0.28 |
| Rocky Mountain | $5.81 | $6.07 | +$0.26 |
| West Coast | $6.99 | $7.25 | +$0.26 |
| California | $7.76 | $8.04 | +$0.28 |
The largest increase among the regions shown occurred in the Lower Atlantic, where prices rose approximately $0.49 per gallon.
Impact on Shippers
Higher diesel prices are expected to directly pressure:
- fuel surcharges;
- drayage costs;
- FTL and LTL rates;
- regional distribution costs;
- long-haul transportation expenses.
Even in segments where spot rates are declining, higher fuel costs could limit further reductions in total transportation spending.
Container Volumes and Port / Ramp Dwell Times
Volumes across the major ports analyzed continue to increase.
Ports
| Port | Week 35 | Week 38 | Dwell / Wait |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 214,000 | 220,600 TEUs | 4.5 days / 1.4 hrs |
| New York/NJ | 190,000 | 196,200 TEUs | 4.0 days / 1.1 hrs |
| Savannah | 118,500 | 122,900 TEUs | 3.5 days / 0.6 hrs |
| Houston | 76,500 | 78,300 TEUs | 3.2 days / 0.8 hrs |
| Charleston | 64,800 | 66,700 TEUs | 3.0 days / 0.7 hrs |
| Norfolk | 64,900 | 66,700 TEUs | 3.1 days / 0.8 hrs |
| Port Everglades | 30,100 | 31,000 TEUs | 2.8 days / 0.6 hrs |
| Philadelphia | 15,600 | 16,100 TEUs | 2.5 days / 0.5 hrs |
Los Angeles remains the largest gateway among the ports shown, followed by New York/New Jersey and Savannah.
Every port analyzed recorded volume growth between Weeks 35 and 38.
Inland Ramps
| Inland Ramp | Week 35 | Week 38 | Dwell / Wait |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 53,200 | 55,000 TEUs | 5.5 days / 2.3 hrs |
| Atlanta | 38,800 | 40,000 TEUs | 4.2 days / 1.8 hrs |
| Charlotte | 25,200 | 26,000 TEUs | 3.5 days / 1.5 hrs |
Chicago remains the primary point of concern among the inland ramps analyzed, both in terms of volume and dwell time.
Operational Assessment
The data indicates continued volume growth without a generalized breakdown in port operations. However, the simultaneous increase in cargo volumes and rail delays creates greater risk for intermodal shipments.
Shippers should prioritize early appointments, free-time monitoring, chassis availability, and rail planning.
FTL & LTL Freight Rates
The latest reading presented in the report shows weekly declines across all three major equipment types.
Dry Van
Spot: $2.21/mile
Contract: $2.05/mile
The spot rate declined approximately $0.04/mile during the week.
Despite the decline, rates remain approximately 36% above the same period last year, according to the report.
Flatbed
Spot: $2.83/mile
Contract: $2.91/mile
Flatbed spot rates declined approximately $0.04/mile, reflecting moderation from elevated summer levels.
Rates nevertheless remain approximately 40% above year-ago levels.
Reefer
Spot: $2.65/mile
Contract: $2.45/mile
Reefer recorded the largest weekly decline:
-$0.07/mile
The decrease reflects moderating demand following the seasonal peak.
Even after the decline, rates remain approximately 38% above the same period last year, according to the report.
Rate Comparison
| Equipment | Spot | Contract | Weekly Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Van | $2.21/mi | $2.05/mi | ▼ $0.04 |
| Flatbed | $2.83/mi | $2.91/mi | ▼ $0.04 |
| Reefer | $2.65/mi | $2.45/mi | ▼ $0.07 |
LTL Market
LTL pricing conditions remain relatively firm. Elevated truckload rates and sharply higher diesel costs could shift additional freight into LTL networks.
At the same time, capacity constraints and regulatory factors continue to support carrier pricing discipline.
